Worked Answers

Try It: The Cold Case

A better fridge costs $900 and cuts spoilage from $300 a month to $120 a month. Should Sunny buy it?

The saving. Mind the trap: the fridge saves only the amount spoilage drops, not the whole bill.

$300 − $120 = $180 a month saved.

The payback.

$900 ÷ $180 a month = 5 months.

The call. Yes, buy it. It pays for itself in five months and saves $180 every month after.

The defense. The $300 came off the trash-out sheet, so it’s measured, not guessed. The real risk is that the new fridge doesn’t cut spoilage as far as promised, say it only reaches $180 a month. Manage it by logging the trash-out sheet for a month or two to confirm spoilage really falls to about $120. Even at $180 of spoilage, a $120 saving, the payback is still 7.5 months, so the decision holds up. A defended “yes, and here’s how I’d confirm it” beats a flat yes.

(The classic miss: dividing $900 by the whole $300 bill and claiming a 3-month payback. The fridge doesn’t save you the spoilage you were never going to stop.)

More Practice 1: The Coupon

New customers gained, at $2 off: 25 orders × ($6 − $2) = 25 × $4 = $100. Regulars who’d have paid full price and now use the coupon: 40 × $2 = $80 lost. Net for the week: $100 − $80 = +$20.

The call. It’s close to a wash. The discount handed to people who’d have bought anyway nearly eats the gain from new customers. Only worth running if Sunny can keep the coupon to new customers, a first-visit flyer or a “new here?” card, which kills the cannibalization and turns the week into a clean +$100. As a blanket coupon, skip it or target it.

(The lesson: a promo’s real cost is the discount you give to people who would have paid full price.)

More Practice 2: The Saturday Market

Contribution: 60 orders × $6 = $360. Costs: $50 stall + (5 hours × $18 = $90) labor = $140. Net: $360 − $140 = $220 for the day. Break-even: $140 ÷ $6 = about 24 orders.

The call. Clear yes. Even if 60 is optimistic, break-even is only 24, so there’s wide room. The risk is a slow or rained-out first market. Manage it by trying three or four Saturdays and checking each against the 24-order line before treating it as permanent.

More Practice 3: The Punch Card

Buy 9, get the 10th free. The mistake is calling the free burrito a $3 giveaway.

The real cost of a free burrito. The regular would have bought that tenth burrito anyway. So Sunny gives up the $6 it would have contributed and still spends $3 making it.

$6 lost contribution + $3 food = $9 per free burrito.

The free item costs its whole price, because it was a sale, not a scrap.

The monthly bill. 40 regulars, one free burrito each:

40 × $9 = $360 a month given up.

Not the $120 (40 × $3) the food-only view suggests. Framed another way: over ten burritos a regular pays for nine, so Sunny collects 9 × $9 = $81 instead of $90, on the same $30 of food. That’s $9 off every ten, a flat 10% discount.

The call. As written, skip it or change it. The card hands a 10% discount to regulars who were already coming and buys nothing for it. It only earns its $360 if it actually changes behavior: more visits per regular, or new regulars who stick because of the card. Manage it with a trip-wire: track average visits per regular for a month or two. If visits climb enough to add contribution above $360, keep the card. If regulars just collect a free burrito they’d have bought anyway, kill it.

(lesson: a free item you would have sold anyway costs its whole price, contribution plus food, not just the food.)

More Practice 4: The Extra Dollar

Move the burrito from $9 to $10, food still $3, with an expected 10% drop from about 600 orders a month.

Contribution now. At $9, contribution is $6.

600 × $6 = $3,600 a month.

Contribution after. At $10 with $3 food, contribution is $7. A 10% drop takes 600 to 540.

540 × $7 = $3,780 a month.

The change.

$3,780 − $3,600 = +$180 a month.

How wrong can Sunny be? Find how far orders could fall before the higher price stops paying. Sunny needs enough $7 orders to match today’s $3,600.

$3,600 ÷ $7 = about 514 orders.

So orders can slide from 600 all the way to 514, a loss of 86 or about 14%, before the raise stops helping. The expected drop is only 60 orders, 10%.

The call. Raise it to $10. It adds about $180 a month even after the expected fall-off, and orders would have to drop almost half again as much, 14% instead of 10%, before the change costs anything. The risk is that a dollar spooks more customers than expected, or a competitor two spots down holds at $9. Manage it by watching order counts for the first few weeks against the 514 line. Above 514, the raise is working. Below it, roll back to $9.

(lesson: a price change is price times volume, not price alone. Check contribution both ways, and find how many sales you can lose before the raise stops paying.)

Try It: The Short Drawer

Shift	Cash rung up	Cash deposited	Short by	Closed by
Mon	$240	$215	$25	Dylan
Tue	$260	$260	$0	Mara
Thu	$300	$250	$50	Dylan
Fri	$280	$255	$25	Dylan

Friday’s $25 short is fully explained by a documented refund, a false alarm. That leaves Monday ($25) and Thursday ($50), both closed and deposited by Dylan. Mara closed Tuesday, which wasn’t short, and never handled a short deposit, so she’s cleared.

Real theft: $25 + $50 = $75.

Culprit: Dylan. Cleared: Mara. False alarm: the Friday $25.

(Common misses: counting the Friday refund as theft, or flagging Mara for being on the schedule when she never touched a short deposit.)

More Practice 1: Two Vendors

• Reyes Cleaning, $220. The address matches Sam’s home, which is a strong lead, so check what it implies. If Reyes were fake, no cleaning would have happened. But there’s a signed weekly log showing the truck was cleaned every week, at a normal price. Real service, real value. False alarm, and Sam is cleared. The match was a coincidence, or simply that Sam runs a side cleaning business, disclosed or not, that actually did the work.
• Apex Supply, $300. No invoice, nothing in the receiving log, so no goods ever arrived, and the payment was both ordered and approved by one person, Jordan, who handles supplier payments alone. Money out the door for nothing, controlled end to end by one person. Phantom vendor. Real theft of $300. Culprit: Jordan.

Total theft: $300.

(The lesson repeats the walkthrough: the scary-looking address match was innocent, and the plain-looking payment with no goods behind it was the theft. Confirm the match, and check whether anything actually arrived.)

More Practice 2: The Bounced Check

• Monday, $150 short. A customer’s $150 catering check bounced and was returned by the bank, documented. The business really lost $150, but nobody stole it. That’s a loss, not a theft. Keep it out of the theft total, though Sunny should still chase the customer for payment.
• Thursday, $90 short. No explanation, on a shift closed and deposited by one person. That’s the real theft, $90.

Real theft: $90. (The business is out $240 total, but only $90 of it is fraud.)

(The lesson: a loss is not a theft. Distinguishing the two is half the job.)

More Practice 3: The Extra Name

• Sam’s high check (week two). A real employee paid more than usual looks like a flag, so check what it implies. If the hours behind the extra pay weren’t worked, the money is theft. But a signed overtime slip covers the extra hours, so the work was real and the pay was earned. False alarm, and Sam is cleared. Don’t let an unusual number convict a documented one.
• T. Rivera. On payroll, paid $150 a week for four weeks, but on no schedule and no clock-in, not once. Run the reconciliation the way you’d run cash or materials: payroll is the money out, and the schedule and clock-in are the record of work that should sit behind it. For the four honest workers, the two agree. For Rivera there’s pay with no work anywhere behind it, the ghost-employee shape, money leaving for nothing. And payroll here is both run and approved by Jordan alone, one person able to slip a name onto the list and sign off on its pay. That’s the segregation-of-duties failure that makes a ghost possible. Ghost employee. Culprit: Jordan.

Total theft: 4 × $150 = $600.

(The lesson: a name on the payroll is not proof anyone worked. Reconcile payroll against the schedule and the clock-in, and clear the odd-but-documented check before you chase it.)

More Practice 4: Case Count

• The crushed case. A signed damage note shows one case, 1,000 cups, crushed and soaked on the dock and thrown out. Sunny is out the $40 that case cost, a real loss, but nobody stole it. Loss, not theft. Keep it out of the fraud total.
• The reconciliation. Bought against used:
  • Bought: 20 cases × 1,000 = 20,000 cups.
  • Used: the register rang up 16,000 drinks, one cup each, so 16,000 cups.
  • Unaccounted: 20,000 − 16,000 = 4,000 cups, which is 4 cases.
  • Documented waste: 1 case, 1,000 cups, crushed, per the damage note.
  • That leaves 4 − 1 = 3 cases gone with no sale and no waste behind them.

Real theft: 3 cases × $40 = $120. (Sunny is out $160 of cups in all, but only $120 is fraud; the other $40 is the documented loss.)

The person who orders the cups also runs the storeroom count, so one pair of hands controls both what comes in and what’s on the shelf, the segregation gap that lets cases leave unnoticed. The gap surfaced only because you checked purchases against register sales, records that person doesn’t set.

(The lesson: reconcile what was bought against what was actually used, and net out documented waste before you call the gap a theft.)

Try It: Read the Other Side

The inference, which is what the problem is testing. Nobody handed you the supplier’s numbers, so build them from what you saw. “Cash has been tight this quarter” means paying on delivery is worth a lot to the supplier, and it costs Sunny almost nothing, since the truck has cash. “Mondays are chaos, the day the truck goes out to grocery accounts” means Monday delivery is costly for the supplier, the exact day Sunny wants it.

The trade. Give the cheap-to-you, valuable-to-them concession and use it to win what you value: “I’ll pay cash on delivery, every time, which helps your cash flow, if you can make mine a Monday delivery.” Sunny concedes the payment issue (doesn’t care) to win the delivery day (does), and the supplier, having landed the cash-flow win, is far more willing to absorb the Monday hassle.

The walk-away question. “Wednesday delivery, pay on delivery, same price” is the same terms as the big-distributor walk-away, just from the smaller supplier. Sunny gained nothing. So it’s no better than the walk-away, and Sunny shouldn’t sign it as is. Put the real trade on the table. If the supplier takes it, Sunny beats the backup. If not, take the more reliable distributor and walk.

More Practice 1: The Commissary Kitchen

The inference. “Trying to lock in steady tenants, month-to-month people keep leaving” means a long lease commitment is valuable to the owner, and it’s cheap for Sunny, who plans to stay anyway. “Early mornings are tight, our wholesale baker is in then” means early-morning access is costly for the owner to grant, and it’s exactly what Sunny values.

The trade. Offer the long lease, cheap for Sunny and valuable to the owner, to win the early access Sunny needs: “I’ll sign a 12-month lease, which gives you the steady tenant you want, if you can fit me an early-morning prep slot, even just one station or a corner while the baker works.” The commitment is what makes the owner willing to solve the access problem.

Keep a walk-away. If the owner truly can’t grant early access even for a long lease, weigh whether prepping later in the morning, or at a different kitchen, works before you sign anything.

More Practice 2: Walk or Deal?

What the gig is really worth:

• Revenue: $600.
• Food: 100 × $3 = $300. Labor: 6 × $18 = $108.
• Gig contribution: $600 − $300 − $108 = $192.

But taking it means closing the normal truck day, which usually nets about $250 in contribution. That normal day is Sunny’s walk-away here.

Net against staying open: $192 − $250 = −$58. The gig leaves Sunny $58 worse off than a normal day.

The call. Don’t take it at $600. It’s below the walk-away. To beat a normal day, the gig has to clear at least $250 in contribution, which means a price of about $300 (food) + $108 (labor) + $250 (to match the day) = about $658. So counter around $675 to $700, or walk. Signing at $600 is choosing to lose money.

(The lesson: your walk-away isn’t always another offer. Often it’s your normal day, and a deal that nets less than staying open is worse than no deal.)

More Practice 3: The Cooler Deal

The inference. Nobody handed you the distributor’s numbers, so build them from what slipped out. “My regional manager is on me to get our branding onto more trucks this quarter” means the branded cooler is worth a lot to the rep, it’s a quota they’re being pushed on, and it costs Sunny almost nothing, a logo on a cooler Sunny doesn’t care about. “We over-ordered summer cans, the warehouse is packed” means the distributor is desperate to move stock, so a discount, especially on those cans, is cheap for them to give and actually helps them.

The trade. Give the cheap-to-you, valuable-to-them concession to win the price: “Put your branded cooler and signage right on the truck, front and center, that helps your quota, if you take a real cut on the case price. And I’ll take a bulk lot of those summer cans off your hands at the discount.” Sunny concedes the branding (doesn’t care) and volunteers to clear their overstock (cheap, Sunny sells drinks anyway) to win the low price that Sunny does care about. The branding win and the emptied warehouse are what make the rep willing to drop the number.

Keep a walk-away. The wholesale club sells the same cans at a flat, ordinary price with no haggling. If the distributor won’t beat that price even for the branding and the bulk order, Sunny buys from the club and walks. The trade only counts if it lands below the club’s shelf price.

More Practice 4: The Wedding Gig

What the gig is really worth:

• Revenue: $520.
• Food: 80 × $3 = $240. Labor: 5 × $18 = $90.
• Gig contribution: $520 − $240 − $90 = $190.

But taking it means closing the truck for a normal Saturday, which usually nets about $240 in contribution. That normal Saturday is Sunny’s walk-away here.

Net against staying open: $190 − $240 = −$50. The gig leaves Sunny $50 worse off than a normal Saturday.

The call. Don’t take it at $520. It’s below the walk-away. To beat a normal Saturday, the gig has to clear at least $240 in contribution, which means a price of at least $240 (food) + $90 (labor) + $240 (to match the day) = $570. So counter, don’t just walk: a wedding is a showcase, and referrals and photos carry some value, so name a price that at least matches a normal Saturday and let the couple decide. Counter around $585 to $600, and hold the line at $570, because anything below that is a loss dressed up as a booking.

(The lesson: your walk-away isn’t always another offer. Often it’s your normal day, and a flat price that nets less than staying open is worse than no deal.)

Try It: First Ten Minutes

1. A, urgent. Someone may be harmed right now. First move: help the customer get care, tell them about the possible peanut cross-contact so the clinic knows what it’s treating, and hold the suspect product.
2. C, urgent. This stops the next person from being harmed. First move: pull the affected tortillas and correct or remove the “peanut-free” label before anyone else buys on it.
3. B, loud. The reporter feels pressing, but no one’s harmed by the reporter. First move, after people are safe: a short, honest statement about what happened and what you’ve done.

(The trap: answering the reporter first. A reporter is loud, not urgent. Protect people, then speak.)

More Practice 1: The Slip

1. A, urgent. A customer is hurt right now. First move: get to them, check whether they need medical help, and call for it if you’re unsure. Don’t move them if they may be seriously injured.
2. C, urgent. The hazard is still active and could drop the next person. First move: block off the wet walkway and stop the leak, a bucket under the cooler and someone guarding the spot.
3. B, loud. The grumbling line and the phone. First move, after A and C: calmly tell the line you’re pausing service to help someone and clear a hazard.

(The trap: clearing the line or worrying about the video before helping the hurt person and killing the live hazard. Both of those are urgent. The line is only loud.)

More Practice 2: Rewrite the Statement

What’s wrong with the draft. It denies (“no real problem,” “no one’s information was ever at risk”) when names and addresses actually went out. It over-promises (“this will never happen again”), which you can’t guarantee. And it pivots straight to selling (“keep ordering!”) before owning the problem.

An honest rewrite:

“Today, some order receipts went out showing the wrong customer’s name and address. If you received one, please delete it. We’ve paused online receipts while we fix the cause, and we’ll let you know when it’s resolved. If your information appeared on one of these, we’ll contact you directly. We’re sorry, and we’re on it.”

Specific, tells people what to do, no denial, and no promise you can’t keep.

More Practice 3: The Fryer Fire

1. The fire, urgent. An active fire climbing toward customers can harm the most people the fastest. First move: kill the heat and smother it, a fire blanket or the extinguisher and the lid, never water on an oil fire, and move customers back from the awning. If it’s not going out fast, everyone back and call the fire department.
2. A, urgent. Mara’s hand is a real injury right now. First move, the moment the fire is controlled or someone else has it: get her hand under cool running water and check whether the burn needs a clinic. A blistering burn is not a “walk it off.”
3. B, loud. The customer filming and calling you a hazard feels pressing, but the phone harms no one. First move, after the fire is out and Mara is being cared for: a short honest word to the line, “We had a flare-up, it’s out, and we stopped to take care of it. Thanks for your patience.”

(The trap: answering the person filming, or protecting the awning, before you’ve put out the fire and gotten Mara’s hand under water. Two of these three are urgent. The camera is only loud, and it can wait until people are safe.)

The order within the two urgent items is a judgment call, and either defensible sequence is fine as long as the fire and the burn both come before the phone. Put out what can spread and hurt a crowd, care for the hurt person, then speak.

More Practice 4: The Plastic Post

What’s wrong with the draft. It denies before it knows (“definitely didn’t come from us,” “basically impossible”) when a customer is holding a photo of plastic in your food, so it’s a guess about a cause you haven’t checked. It over-promises (“never happen again,” and “totally fixed it already” when you haven’t found the source). And it pivots straight to selling (“come grab a taco,” “new salsa”) before it has owned the problem or shown any concern for the person who bit into plastic. Every one of those is a line you’d have to walk back.

An honest rewrite:

“Thank you for flagging this, and we’re sorry, that’s not okay and not what we want anyone to bite into. We’re checking our prep line and our packaging right now to find where the plastic came from. If you still have your order, please don’t eat it, and message us so we can make it right and follow up with you directly. We’ll share what we find once we know.”

It names what happened, says what you’re doing right now, tells the customer what to do, and shows you care, with no denial, no promise you can’t keep, and no sales pitch bolted onto an apology.

Try It: The Festival Weekend

The three parts. Gate, the share of it that buys from Sunny, and the ticket.

Gate. 4,000 a day for two days: 8,000. Measured by the organizer, so this is the solid part. Call it 7,500 to 8,500, because gates are counted generously.

The share who buy from Sunny. This is the whole question, and the 5% from the farmers market cannot be used as it stands. At the market, three trucks were selling lunch. At the festival there are twelve.

Reason it in two steps. If 5% of the market’s gate bought from Sunny and there were three trucks, then roughly 15% of that gate bought lunch from a truck at all. A festival crowd is captive for a whole day, so a bigger share eats: call it 35%. Split across twelve trucks, Sunny’s share is 35 ÷ 12, or about 3%.

That is a chain of guesses, so the range has to be wide: 2% to 4%.

Ticket. $10, given.

The answer.

8,000 × 3% = 240 orders. 240 × $10 = about $2,400, somewhere between $1,600 and $3,200.

The $400 pitch fee is not part of the question, which asked for takings. Say so on the page rather than quietly subtracting it, and note that the weekend clears the fee comfortably at any point in your range.

The swing assumption. The per-truck share. One point either way moves the answer by $800, which is a third of the estimate. Nothing else comes close.

What would settle it. Ask the organizer what vendors took last year, or how many vendors there were. Either answer converts the worst guess on the page into a measured number.

A check worth doing. 240 orders over two days is 120 a day, about 15 an hour. Sunny’s window can do that. If the arithmetic had come out at 600 orders a day, the ceiling would have been the answer and not the demand.

More Practice 1: The Rainy Tuesday

Do not average the wet days with the dry ones. $420 is a normal day and Tuesday is not one.

The three rainy days are $310, $260 and $290, which average $287. That is the estimate, rounded honestly to about $290.

Range: $250 to $330. Narrow, and here is the line the question asks for: we have three direct observations of exactly this condition, so we are interpolating rather than guessing. Widen it a little at the bottom, because this forecast is for rain all day and at least one of those three was probably a wet morning that cleared.

If you answered “$420 minus a bit,” you anchored on the normal day when you had better evidence sitting right there.

More Practice 2: The Second Pitch

Footfall: 700, given.

Conversion: the 3% comes from the current pitch, where nobody has an alternative twenty feet away. This office park has a canteen inside the building, in the warm, already paid for by many of the people walking past. So 3% is an overstatement. Use 2%, with a range of 1% to 3.5%.

700 × 2% = 14 orders × $10 = about $140 a day, between $70 and $245.

The assumption that decides it: the canteen. If the canteen is bad, or expensive, or closes at one, the real number is nearer the 3% and the pitch is worth having. If it is decent, Sunny is selling to the handful of people who want something else.

What would settle it: eat in the canteen once. That is a two-dollar research budget and it decides a pitch.

More Practice 3: The Catering Order

The question asks for contribution, and it asks what the order adds, which means something has to be given up.

The order: 120 × ($8 − $3) = $600 of contribution.

What it displaces: the 25 breakfast orders at $4 each = $100 of contribution.

Net added: $500.

What you had to assume. That the morning is genuinely full, so the catering order really does cost the breakfast service. That no extra staff hours are needed; if Sunny pays a cook three extra hours at $18, that is $54 off the answer. And that lunch trades as normal, which is the assumption worth writing down, because a truck that is still packing 120 foil parcels at 11:45 does not open on time.

A team that answered $960 multiplied 120 by $8 and forgot that food costs money. A team that answered $600 forgot that the morning was already earning.

More Practice 4: The Whole Summer

Build it in two lines and add them.

Weekdays: $420 × 22 days = $9,240 in a normal month. At 60%: $5,544 a month. Across three months: $16,632.

Saturdays: 4 markets a month at $600 = $2,400 a month, three months: $7,200.

Total: about $23,800, and “about” is the right word for a number built from two estimates.

Which assumption moves it most. The 60%. Being wrong by ten points is worth $2,772 across the summer. Being wrong by $100 on every single market is worth $1,200. So the office crowd is the thing to watch, and Sunny will know by the second week of June.

The mistake to avoid: forecasting the summer at the normal rate and then “taking a bit off at the end.” The calendar changed, the crowd changed and a whole new trading day appeared. Those are three separate changes, and a single gut-feel discount hides all of them.

#	What happens	Muscle	A reasonable first move
1	Is the order worth taking at the offered price?	Decide	Work the contribution per unit at the offered price against the added cost, and find the break-even volume.
2	Ingredient costs creeping; flour used doesn’t match production	Investigate	Reconcile flour bought against flour production actually used, and look for where the gap goes.
3	The buyer wants to talk price, delivery, and capacity	Negotiate	Prepare interests, target, and walk-away, and look for a trade, say a longer commitment for a better price.
4	The buyer wants a weekly volume committed from March	Forecast	Break it into three: current weekly output, the share the new line adds, and how much of that holds once the novelty passes. Commit a number with a range.
5	On delivery day the van breaks down, half the order is late	Respond	Protect the relationship and be honest fast: call the buyer at once, say what’s late and your plan, don’t hide it.

If your mapping matched, you’re reading situations the way this book set out to teach you. If one surprised you, reread that chapter’s one big idea. That’s the muscle to train next.

1. The festival booth: Decide. The tempting read is Negotiate, get the $600 fee down, but there is nothing to trade for until you know whether the weekend is worth having. This is a yes or no with a number and a cushion, which is Decide. Work the honest net first:

150 × $6 = $900 contribution.

$600 fee + (12 × $18 = $216) labor = $816 cost.

$900 − $816 = $84 net.

Then mind the wrong turn: 150 burritos is a guess. Break-even is $816 ÷ $6 = 136 burritos, a cushion of only 14, about 9%. A slow weekend erases the $84. So the defended call is to take it only as a one-time trial, to learn festival demand, or to first ask the festival to drop the $600, which turns it into a Negotiate. Either is defensible. Taking it because “$900 sounds great,” or freezing, is not.

2. The juice bar’s short week: Investigate. The tempting move is to see the first short night and accuse. Don’t. Explain what you can, then reconcile. Thursday’s $25 is covered by the signed refund, a false alarm, and it was Cam’s night anyway. The real shorts are Monday $20, Wednesday $30, and Friday $20, every one closed by Tara. Cam closed a clean night, Tuesday, and the explained one, Thursday, so he is cleared.

Real theft: $20 + $30 + $20 = $70. Culprit: Tara. Cleared: Cam. False alarm: Thursday’s $25.

3. The tortilla renewal: Negotiate. It looks like Decide, switch or stay, and that is the trap: haggling one number, or just picking a supplier, leaves the trade on the table. Dig for the interest. The jump from $0.20 to $0.25 would cost Sunny $0.05 × 3,000 = $150 a month more. But the supplier values things Sunny can hand over cheaply: a guaranteed monthly volume and faster payment, where she pays in 30 days today. Offer a twelve-month commitment at 3,000 a month and payment in seven days, in exchange for holding the price near $0.21 with guaranteed delivery.

At $0.21: $0.01 × 3,000 = $30 a month more than today, instead of $150.

Both sides win: the supplier locks volume and gets cash three weeks sooner, and Sunny keeps her price low and her deliveries reliable. That is a trade, not a tug-of-war over one number.

4. The lawn round: Forecast. Not Decide, nobody has asked yet whether to buy the second mower, and not Negotiate, there is nobody on the other side of a table. The job is one number for a season that has not happened, so build it from parts instead of guessing at the total.

Lawns that come back: 60 × 80% = 48. Plus 15 new = 63 lawns a week.

63 × $45 × 30 weeks = $85,050, call it about $85,000.

Then mind the ceiling, which is the thing the arithmetic hides. One crew cuts about 55 lawns a week and demand is 63, and demand is not sales. With one crew Evergreen only bills 55:

55 × $45 × 30 = $74,250, about $74,000.

So the honest answer is two numbers: about $74,000 as the business stands, about $85,000 if the second crew is running by April. Say which one you are forecasting. The range comes from the parts, not from a feeling. Renewal could be 70% to 90% and winter signings 10 to 20, which is 52 to 74 lawns a week:

Low: 52 × $45 × 30 = $70,200. High: 74 × $45 × 30 = $99,900, and only if there is a crew free to cut them.

The swing assumption is renewal. Ten points either way is six lawns, worth 6 × $45 × 30 = $8,100 over the season, against $6,750 for five signings either way. So renewal is the number to watch, and it is the cheap one to settle: call last season’s customers in February instead of estimating them.

5. The reaction: Respond. The instinct to say nothing is exactly the failure this muscle names. Protect the person before the brand. First move: reach the customer, show genuine concern, and urge them to get medical care if they have not. Then act on what you control right now, before you know everything: pull that muffin from sale and check the recipe and the supplier for any nut cross-contact. Tell the truth fast instead of managing a story. If nuts turn up anywhere in the supply chain, warn anyone else at risk and fix the labeling and the staff training. Going quiet to protect the reputation is how a small incident becomes the story.

6. The wrong date: Respond, then Investigate, then Decide. This one is tangled on purpose, and the skill is sequencing the muscles, not picking one.

• Respond first. The client is panicking with an event in four days. Acknowledge it at once, own the problem, and give a plan, before any talk of blame. A defensive “well, did you approve it?” in the first phone call loses the client even when you turn out to be right.
• Investigate next. Pull the approved proof. Did the client sign off on the wrong date, or did the shop print something other than the approved file? That single fact decides who pays.
• Decide last, with a number. A reprint costs Fulton about $1,200, a sticker fix about $300, and the order was worth $2,500, with a happy repeat client worth far more. If the shop erred, eat the $1,200 reprint; it is cheaper than losing the client and the reputation. If the client approved the wrong date, it is their error: offer the $300 sticker fix at cost, or a discounted rush reprint, and get the choice in writing. Same facts, different call, depending on what the investigation found.

Real problems arrive like number six, several muscles at once. Naming them and taking them in the right order is the whole game.